Page 223 - Math Course 3 (Book 2)

Probability Simulations

In the last 30 school days, Bobbie’s older brother Find the theoretical probability that there will be 4
has given her a ride to school 5 times. Describe a female puppies in a litter.
way to simulate whether Bobbie’s brother will give
her a ride to school in the next 20 school days. There are 16 possible outcomes, and the number
of combinations that have 4 female puppies is
Choose the side of the die that will be used to C or 1.
represent a ride to school. 4 4

So the theoretical probability is
Answer 1 .
16

Find the experimental probability that there will be
Let one side of the die equal a 4 female puppies in the litter.
Answer ride to school. Toss the die 20
times and record each result.
Outcomes Frequency

Theoretical and Experimental Probability 4 female, 0 male 3

Example 3 female, 1 male 13

2 female, 2 male 18

DOGS 1 female, 3 male 12

0 female, 4 male 4

Experimental probability

Ali performed 50 trials and 3 of those resulted in 4
3
female. So, the experimental probability is or 6%.
50
Ali raises purebred dogs. One of her dogs is
expecting a litter of four puppies, and Ali would
like to figure out the most likely mix of male and Answer 6%
female puppies.
1
Assume that P(male) = P(female) = 2 How does the theoretical probability compare
with the experimental probability?
One possible simulation would be to toss four
coins, one for each puppy, with heads representing Theoretical probability
female and tails representing male. What is an combinations with
alternative to using 4 coins that could model the C 4 female puppies
possible combinations of the puppies? P(4 females) = 4 4
16 possible outcomes
Each puppy can be male or female, so there are 1
2 • 2 • 2 • 2 or 16 possible outcomes for the litter. = or 6.25%
16

The theoretical probability is a
little more than 6% and the
Answer a spinner with 16 equal divisions Answer experimental probability is 6%,
so they are very close.

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