Page 221 - Math Course 3 (Book 2)

Probability Simulations

Empirical Study
Let’s Begin
Example

Experimental Probability A pharmaceutical company performs three
clinical studies to test the effectiveness of a new
Example medication. Each study involves 100 volunteers.
The results of the studies are shown in the table.

BASKETBALL

Miguel shot 50 free throws in the gym and found
that his experimental probability of making a free Result Study 1 Study 2 Study 3
throw was 40%. How many free throws did Miguel Expected Success Rate 70% 70% 70%
make? Condition Improved 61% 74% 67%
No Improvement 39% 25% 33%
Condition Worsened 0% 1% 0%

What is the experimental probability that the drug
showed no improvement in patients for all three
studies?

The number of outcomes with no improvement
for the three studies was 39 + 25 + 33 or 97 out of
the 300 total patients.

97
Miguel’s experimental probability of making a free Experimental probability = 300
throw was 40%. The number of successes can be
written as 40 out of every 100 free throws.
The experimental probability of the
number of Answer 97
experimental 40 success three studies was or about 32%
300
probability = 40% or 100 total number of
free throws

Since Miguel only shot 50 free throws, write and Your Turn!
solve a proportion.
Experimental Probability
experimental Miguel’s Nancy was testing her serving accuracy in volley-
successes 40 x successes ball. She served 80 balls and found that her ex-
experimental 100 = 50 Miguel’s total perimental probability of keeping it in bounds was
total free throws free throws 60%. How many serves did she keep in bounds?
A. 48
50(40) = 100(x) Find the cross B. 80
products. C. 32
D. 40
2000 = 100x Simplify.

x = 20 Divide each side Answer
by 100.

Answer Miguel made 20 free throws.

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